Grain elevators and end users are navigating heightened market volatility caused by uncertainty concerning the size of this fall’s corn harvest.
After U.S. corn farmers suffered historic planting delays from nonstop rains this spring, the crop is late in maturing — especially in states across the eastern Corn Belt. Those delays could lead to major losses in crop production this fall. And they could raise the stakes for grain merchandisers as well as ethanol producers and livestock feeders, said Tanner Ehmke manager of CoBank's Knowledge Exchange Division.
Volatility in corn basis and carry in the futures market has plagued the market since spring,
Ehmke said in a company news release. That raises concerns regarding grain-elevator ability to acquire bushels and profit on this fall’s corn harvest.
The biggest planting delays occurred in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Based on the most recent weekly data, the eastern Corn Belt continues to struggle with the greatest delays in crop development, raising fears that freezing temperatures may kill crops before they can be harvested.
Uncertainty concerning corn availability this fall has injected fear and volatility into the market, Ehmke said. It has complicated forecasts on profitability for grain elevators. Through May and June the basis in central Ohio rallied 25 cents to the best level in five years — before plunging almost 50 cents by mid-August.
In the futures market the December-July carry for corn decreased from its peak of 32.75 cents per bushel in May to 4.5 cents per bushel in June. It then rallied back to 27.5 cents per bushel in August. The estimated cost for elevators to store corn is 3 cents per bushel per month. The seven-month December-July carry needs to be at least 21 cents per bushel per month for the elevator to break even.
Some elevators could face an even more difficult issue — lack of access to corn. In corn-deficit areas elevators will be forced to compete for local bushels or look for corn outside the region.
Elevators that buy cheap basis stand to profit from the volatility, while elevators that buy expensive basis face steep downside risk. Weakness in basis could result if bushels are brought into a corn-deficient region and demand erodes as end users try to stem their financial losses.
Elevators in the eastern Corn Belt have a much slimmer chance of buying cheap basis this fall at harvest. Grain handlers will most likely need to compete for bushels in regions that are corn-deficit. If old-crop bushels cannot be acquired ahead of harvest and if new-crop bushels are not secured at harvest, elevators stand to face a difficult marketing year ahead, Ehmke said. Mergers and acquisitions in the region are likely to increase.