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AgUpdate - Marketwatch
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CME Group Futures settlements (preliminary) 7/30
  Settle Change High Low
Sep corn 5.47 -11 5.57 3/4 5.46 1/2

Dec corn

5.45 1/4 -11 1/4 5.56 5.43 1/2

Mar corn

5.53 1/4 -11 5.63 1/2 5.51 1/2
Aug beans 14.14 3/4 -19 1/2 14.41 14.05 3/4
Sep beans 13.55 1/2 -29 3/4 13.87 1/4 13.50 1/2
Nov beans 13.49 1/4 -28 1/2 13.80 3/4 13.43
Aug soy meal 352.6 -3.9 359.3 352.0
Sep soy meal 351.3 -5.2 359.0 350.8
Oct soy meal 350.3 -5.4 357.8 349.6
Sep wheat 7.03 3/4 -1 1/2 7.11 1/2 6.95
Dec wheat 7.13 -3/4 7.20 7.03 1/2
Mar wheat 7.20 1/2 -1/4 7.26 3/4 7.10 1/2
Ethanol Futures settlements (preliminary)
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 2.220 -.100 2.220 2.220
Sep 2.220 -.100
Oct 2.207 -.100
         

Grains slide lower to close week

Ag markets and equity markets both moved lower to finish the week, despite the current weather outlook. “The Ag markets were down hard due to month end as well,” John Wesley Willson, with CHS Hedging, said. “The weather maps didn’t look to bring much for relief, leaving the trade wondering why the selloff was so severe.”

“China has also been vocal about reining in commodity costs,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Generally, people or businesses who vocalize concerns about cost probably need to be a buyer. Our interpretation is that China needs to be a buyer. Yet with harvest just around the corner in three to four weeks in the South, end-user buying may be more hand to mouth.”

Corn

Corn futures ended the week trading lower,” John Wesley Willson, with CHS Hedging, said. “…The questions surrounding the production for this upcoming crop are largely unanswered. We saw what happened in August last year and given the tight balance sheets, the possibility of below trendline yields needs to be respected.”

“NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows accumulation for Southern IA and MO accumulating to a pocket of 2 1/2 inches,” Barchart.com said. “The full system stretches from SD through KY, and is expected to drop 3/4 inch to an inch from mid SD, eastern NE and western IL. Ohio, Minnesota and North Dakota noticeably miss out.”

Soybeans

“This week we focused on the idea that heading into August weather will be ultra-critical,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Assuming demand holds, there is no room to error with production. A rather robust yield projection at 50.8 bushels an acre seems challenging at this time with only 58% of the crop rated as good to excellent. 36% of crop areas are considered in a drought.”

“Soybean futures fell hard on Friday, after posting strong numbers the previous session,” John Wesley Willson, with CHS Hedging, said. “We cannot blame weather as being the driver of the sell-off because the most recent runs did not add moisture or reduce the heat. The most logical explanation is prices resided towards the top of the new trading range and it was month end.”

Wheat

“Wheat was not immune to the early weakness, but it did recover better than the other grain markets,” John Wesley Willson, with CHS Hedging, said. “The wheat complex saw two-sided trade as the market attempted to go positive during Friday’s session. Several deferred months in the Chicago and KC contract managed to close in positive territory.”

“The International Grains Council revised their wheat output for the global 21/22 crop by 1 MMT lower to 788 MMT,” Barchart.com said. “Total grain production and use were both expected to be records in 21/22 with feed contributing the largest to total grain use. For new crop wheat, IGC also increased global trade for a net 3 MMT tighter stockpile of 280 MMT.”

Lean Hogs CME — Close 7/30
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 106.200 -.100 106.750 105.825
Oct 88.025 -.950 89.375 87.275
Dec 81.650 -.750 82.575 80.925
Live Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 122.075 -.425 122.750 122.000
Oct 127.200 -.950 128.225 127.075
Dec 132.650 -.625 133.375 132.400
Feeder Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 158.175 -.325 159.175 157.600
Sep 161.800 -.150 162.700 160.825
Oct 164.050 -.150 164.875 163.175

Hogs, cattle finish week in the red

“October cattle closed moderately lower on the session as a bearish tilt to outside market forces and weakness in agricultural markets helped to pressure,” the Hightower Report said. “The 50% mark of the June 16-July 19 break leaves good support at the 127.27 level but the market pushed below this support.”

“October hogs closed sharply lower on the day and the market fell sharply from Tuesday high of 94.05 to a low of 87.27 today,” the Hightower Report said. “The market opened steady and experienced choppy and two-sided trade early in the day. The selling pushed the market down to the lowest level since July 15.”

Hogs, cattle finish week in the red

“October cattle closed moderately lower on the session as a bearish tilt to outside market forces and weakness in agricultural markets helped to pressure,” the Hightower Report said. “The 50% mark of the June 16-July 19 break leaves good support at the 127.27 level but the market pushed below this support.”

“October hogs closed sharply lower on the day and the market fell sharply from Tuesday high of 94.05 to a low of 87.27 today,” the Hightower Report said. “The market opened steady and experienced choppy and two-sided trade early in the day. The selling pushed the market down to the lowest level since July 15.”

Lean hogs

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

  • National carcass base was 88 cents lower to $101.70/cwt.
  • National live fell $5.43 to $76.65
  • Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was $103.84

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 2 cents to $123.89/cwt.

“After four days down and with a discount to the cash market, the market may find some underlying support soon,” the Hightower Report said. “However, supplies are on the rise and China demand is declining and that leaves a bearish fundamental tilt to the market. Pork cutout values at midsession came in at $124.97, up $1.10 on the day.”

“The last underlying factor in the market has been the finding of African swine fever in the Dominican Republic,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Though not here in the U.S., it is close to home and could be making the market nervous in the near term. This push lower overall is more technically driven, and that technical picture looks weak into the weekend.”

Cattle

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on both Choice and Select, the USDA said.

  • Choice was up $3.24 to $278.46/cwt.
  • Select rose $2.37 to $259.19.

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 2,097 head sold live for $122-123, and 620 head sold live for $195-196. In Iowa/Minnesota, there were 3,876 head sold live for $123-126, and 670 head sold dressed for $193-200.

The long-term fundamental picture provides some optimism. “The longer-term fundamentals look positive with declining production in the weeks and months ahead, and a still positive tilt to consumer demand for beef,” the Hightower Report said. “Boxed beef cutout values that midsession came in at $278.82, up $3.60 on the day.”

“The concerning fundamental was the rise in carcass weight, as that factor starts to seasonally turn heavier,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Packers have been keeping kill around the 120,000 head/day level, and if weights climb, will have ample product to supply the market, and keep the cash market in check.”

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


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