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AgUpdate - Marketwatch
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CME Group Futures settlements (preliminary) 1/27
  Settle Change High Low
Mar corn 6.83 +1/2 6.86 6.78 1/4
May corn 6.80 UNCH 6.82 1/4 6.75 1/2
Dec corn 5.87 1/4 -2 3/4 5.90 5.86
Mar beans 15.09 1/2 -14 15.27 15.06 1/2
May beans 15.04 1/2 -10 1/4 15.19 1/4 15.02
Nov beans 13.51 1/4 -1 1/4 13.58 1/4 13.47 13/4
Mar soy meal 473.5 -3.6 481.7 471.3
May soy meal 459.4 -2.6 465.4 457.0
Dec soy meal 395.1 -1.6 399.9 394.7
Mar wheat 7.50 -2 1/2 7.53 1/4 7.44 1/2
May wheat 7.58 3/4 -1 3/4 7.61 3/4 7.53 1/2
Jul wheat 7.60 -2 1/2 7.63 1/2 7.55 1/2
Ethanol Futures settlements (preliminary)
  Settle Change High Low
Nov 2.207 UNCH
Dec 2.207 UNCH
Jan 2.137 UNCH
         

Chinese demand concerns continue

There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve, according to Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group.

Look for continued improvements in both corn and soybean crop ratings. Central Brazil may continue to experience mild harvest delays for the next week, before a slightly drier pattern is established by late next week, according to Mark Soderberg of ADM Investor Services.

Corn

It was a pretty quiet news week as the market has gotten into rangebound trade post the January USDA report, according to Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging.

Analysts at a Paris grain conference see Ukraine corn production in the coming year near 18 million tonnes, ddown from 27 million tonnes this past year, according to the Hightower Group.

Soybeans

Brazil’s Deral expects the Southern state of Paran will yield 20.7 MMT of soybeans via their most recent forecast. That is down by 3% citing the season’s dryness in the South. The Argentine soy crop was rated 4% points higher on Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s good/excellent rating this week, to 7%. The portion of the crop rated poor was at 54%, improved from 60% last week, according to Total Farm Marketing.

Soybeans were lower on the day as favorable weather for Argentina appears to have pressured the market in front of the weekend , according to Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging.

Wheat

Cold weather is expected for much of the Midwest and Southern plains to finish January, according to Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging.

USDA reported wheat export sales were 500,249 MT for the week that ended 1/19. Japan and Mexico were the top buyers for the week. By class white wheat led the charge with nearly 200k MT. Accumulated wheat commitments were 16 MMT as of 1/19, which remains 7% under last year’s pace, according to Total Farm Marketing.

Lean Hogs CME — Close 1/27
  Settle Change High Low
Feb 75.875 -1.150 77.075 75.825
Apr 86.450 -.550 88.325 86.200
May 94.925 +.075 96.150 94.700
Live Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Feb 156.725 UNCH 157.000 156.500
Apr

160.825

+.300 161.025 160.200
Jun 157.775 +.400 157.925 157.025
Feeder Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Mar 183.475 +.625 183.775 182.700
Apr 187.550 +.550 187.875 186.800
May 191.850 +.575 192.150 191.000

Cattle markets stay quiet to close week

Cash cattle activity remains quiet, with packers seeking to buy animals $1 or more lower than last week, while feedlots want steady or better prices, according to Peter McGinn of Walsh Trading.

Beef net sales were 25,100 MT. South Korea, the best buyer in 2022 came back taking 10,000MT followed by Japan with 4400 mt and China taking 4200 mt about the average China has been lately taking, according to Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services.

Cattle markets stay quiet to close week

Cash cattle activity remains quiet, with packers seeking to buy animals $1 or more lower than last week, while feedlots want steady or better prices, according to Peter McGinn of Walsh Trading.

Beef net sales were 25,100 MT. South Korea, the best buyer in 2022 came back taking 10,000MT followed by Japan with 4400 mt and China taking 4200 mt about the average China has been lately taking, according to Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services.

Lean hogs

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

  • National carcass base down 30 cents to $70.63/cwt.
  • National live down 2.49 to $54.54/cwt.
  • Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 2 cents to $71.52/cwt.

National carcass cutout down 1.21 to $79.25/cwt.

The upside looks limited due to ample short-term supply. In addition, April holds a large premium to the cash market but the premium is due to the normal seasonal shift to lower production, which this year is not happening, according to the Hightower Report.

Strong pork exports at 44,700 MT this week. Mexico took 17,700 MT followed by China taking 12,500 MT but dropping to Japan with just 3,700MT. China likely is buying to refill stocks after the heavy use of pork during the Lunar New Year, according to Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services.

Cattle

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and Select, the USDA said.

  • Choice down 99 cents to $267.76/cwt.
  • Select down 94 cents to $250.54/cwt.

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported none sold live and 66 head sold dressed at $248.00. In negotiated cash sales in Iowa/Minnesota, the USDA reported none sold live and 38 head sold dressed at $245.00.

Sluggish action for beef prices and weakness in the cash market this week helped to pressure, according to the Hightower Report.

Federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week was estimated as 504k head through Thursday. That remains 11k head above last week’s pace and is 24k head above the same week last year, according to Total Farm Marketing.

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


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