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AgUpdate - Marketwatch
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CME Group Futures settlements (preliminary) 7/16
  Settle Change High Low
Sep corn 4.35 1/4 -5 3/4 4.40 3/4 4.29
Dec corn 4.41 1/4 -5 3/4 4.47 1/4 4.35 1/2

Mar corn

4.48 1/2 -5 1/4 4.54 1/4 4.43 1/4
Aug beans 8.87 3/4 -14 9.00 8.85
Sep beans 8.93 3/4 -14 9.05 3/4 8.90 3/4
Nov beans 9.06 -14 9.18 1/4 9.02 1/2
Aug soy meal 308.4 -3.2 311.6 306.7
Sep soy meal 309.9 -3.4 313.1 308.5
Oct soy meal 311.8 -3.2 315.1 310.0
Sep wheat 5.07 1/2 -1/4 5.10 5.01
Dec wheat 5.19 1/4 -3/4 5.22 5.13 1/4
Mar wheat 5.31 1/2 -1 1/2 5.34 1/2 5.26
Ethanol Futures settlements (preliminary)
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 1.521 -.037 1.556 1.506
Sep 1.538 -.037 1.574 1.524
Oct 1.544 -.037 - 1.535
         

With dry conditions, markets stay low

A variety of factors pushed markets lower today. “The grain markets were lower on technicals, profit taking and forecasts suggesting relief from extremely high temps this weekend and into next week,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “There is no new news on trade talks with China and the USMCA is waiting for the Democrats approval. Fresh news is very light.”

Dry conditions could support corn prices, although exports and last year’s crop could limit the upside. “Some feel dryness across the central Midwest could support prices near 4.20,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Slow export demand and large farmer ownership of last years crop could limit the upside unless there is a weather problem.”

Corn

“Corn prices were lower on profit taking, improving crop conditions and beneficial rains across much of the US,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The Brazilian 2nd crop harvest is over the halfway mark with what looks to be a big crop. Hearing reports that the US corn crop is coming along. It is behind but is also rapidly improving from the hot/humid temps and rain.”

Weather was providing mixed signals, with some areas receiving beneficial rain and other spots needing moisture. “Rain in the forecast for this week should benefit crops in southern IL, IN and OH, as well as MN and WI,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Other areas of the Corn Belt, particularly IA and northern IL are showing moisture stress from a lack of rain the past two weeks.”

Soybeans

Crop ratings and comments from the President of the United States kept soybean prices down. “The fact USDA increased weekly soybean crop ratings and POTUS said it may take a while for a trade deal with China weighed on prices,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “POTUS also suggested he could still impose new tariffs on the remaining China imports.”

Weather forecasts remained a key factor for soybean market analysts. “Today’s noon maps also suggested a cold front forecast for the north Midwest might dip down into IA and N Il over the weekend,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “IL and IA areas were forecasted to miss most of the rains over the next 5-7 days.”

Wheat

A few factors were providing resistance for wheat prices. “The fact US winter wheat harvest is advancing and there is slow export demand for US wheat offers resistance,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Continued high rating of the US spring wheat crop and forecast of normal rains across the US north plains also offers resistance.”

“The wheat market traded lower on lack of fresh supportive news and spillover weakness in the row crops,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “KC saw additional pressure from the active winter wheat harvest with big yields being noted.”

Lean Hogs CME — Close 7/16
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 79.050 -1.050 80.925 78.750
Oct 75.300 +1.400 75.475 73.975
Dec 73.350 +1.550 73.525 72.025
Live Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 108.225 -.275 108.650 107.800
Oct 109.250 -.525 109.900 108.925
Dec 113.725 -.375 114.225 113.350
Feeder Cattle CME
  Settle Change High Low
Aug 141.050 -.600 142.400 140.800
Sep 141.875 -.725 143.300 141.500
Oct 142.225 -.750 143.600 141.900
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Choppy markets hurt cattle

Cattle markets were choppy Tuesday. “The market closed slightly lower on the day and well above the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “October cattle experienced choppy and two- sided trade early in the session, but traded moderately lower on the day into the midsession before a slow recovery to just slightly down on the day.”

Hog markets managed to close higher, with October hitting its highest close since late June. “The market experienced choppy and two-sided trade early today but October closed moderately higher on the day and experienced the highest close since June 20,” the Hightower Report said. “The buying pulled the market up to the highest level since July 3.”

Lean hogs

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

  • National carcass base was 75 cents higher to $69.36/cwt.
  • National live was 38 cents lower to $52.44
  • Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was up 19 cents to $70.70

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $2.90 to $75.80/cwt.

Pig prices in China helped push hog markets higher. “A surge higher in cash pig prices in China has helped to support the buying,” the Hightower Report said. “News that Hong Kong pork prices hit an all-time high this week added to the positive tone.”

The technical trend for hog markets was looking positive in the short-term. “The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average,” the Hightower Report said. "The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down.”

Cattle

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, the USDA said.

  • Choice was down 34 cents to $212.93/cwt.
  • Select fell 5 cents to $189.16.

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there was also no reportable trade.

Prices might be overbought from a technical perspective, but cattle markets were avoiding a major selloff. “Technically, prices may be a bit overbought since the rally off the recent lows, but sellers have been few and far between,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Any selling pressure has been met with buyers and prices have consistently held the previous session's lows.”

Cattle markets drifted lower Tuesday, despite hopes of seeing strength in retail beef values. “Live cattle have made an inside session today and are still waiting for retail beef values to confirm the anticipated strength,” Stewart-Peterson said.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.


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