With little change in cash canola prices over the last two weeks, Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association, said there has also been few sales made.
Local cash prices are $15.91 to $16.55 per hundredweight, virtually unchanged from the last market column.
“The big news remains as to what is going to happen to the U.S.-China trade relations,” Coleman said, “and everything is hinged on that at this time.”
During our last visit it was noted that snow in parts of Alberta, Canada, raised concern about harvesting canola acres in Canada, but recent good weather allowed producers north of the border to near completion of the canola harvest, he noted.
The USDA Economic Research Service just released their latest Oil Crop Outlook and it reported that canola production in the U.S. has really expanded. Production in the United States this year is forecasted to be a record 3.6 billion pounds, based on near-record acreage and record yields. The U.S. average yield is going to be 1,864 pounds per acre and the average yield just released for North Dakota is 1,920 pounds per acre, which is a record yield.
“This top yield in North Dakota accounted for almost all of the increased production in the U.S.,” Coleman said. “And this increase in domestic supply may trim the U.S. canola imports from Canada, with imports expected to decline from 1.4 to 1.2 billion pounds. This means we won’t be relying as much on Canadian production.”
In studying the canola acres for the 2018 crop, he noticed where counties in the northeastern part of North Dakota had record high canola acres this year.
“We have been getting more canola being grown in a rotation with sugarbeets, which is something the researchers say can be done,” he said.
Coleman has also heard that the Canadian canola industry is pleased with the arrangements arrived at in the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement because it did not impose any tariffs on any canola seed, oil or meal moving north or south. Industry people in the U.S. are pleased as well.
In addition, talks are going well with Canada and some of the Asian countries in regard to canola trade. In particular, Coleman said Canada will now be able to export a lot of value added products, like canola oil and canola meal into Japan, whereas before they had a lot of tariffs that will now be phased out over the next five years.
“Overall that will be good for the entire North American canola industry,” he said. “It should result in more growth and more opportunity for value added products.
Finally, the annual Canola Expo will be held in Langdon on Dec. 4. This will be the 21st annual show and this year’s program will feature a discussion on club root and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management will be the keynote speaker for the day.