The canola market numbers continued to surge skyward as positive news continues to dominate the headlines, according to Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association. Cash canola prices at the local crush markets on Sept. 16 ranged from $16.37 to $18.10 per hundredweight, which is up 75 cents to the dollar from the last market report.
“The November canola futures ended today at $530 per ton, which up $9 – canola futures have been higher in 16 of the last 18 trading sessions, going back to Aug. 21,” Coleman said. “This is an amazing counter-seasonal run higher.
“The dryness and the developing La Nina is one thing people are talking about in regards to South America and any production stumble down there would be more explosive toward the (oilseed) markets and that seems to be factored in the traders’ decisions,” he added.
This is the highest canola futures trading price since June of 2018, Coleman noted, and several marketing firms have said when canola futures hit the $530 to $540 range, that is reaching multi-years resistance levels. More than one marketing firm is now suggesting farmers have about 40 percent of this year’s canola sold.
Declining U.S. crop ratings and increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans are fueling the overall oilseed rally.
Lately, SASK Ag reduced the estimated canola production in the province of Saskatchewan to average just 35 bushels per acre, which Coleman said differs significantly from STATS Can figure of 41 bushels per acre. Two different figures from reporting groups on the potential size of the canola crop in Saskatchewan propelled the canola market higher, according to Coleman.
Many traders are expecting the ending stocks of canola to get pretty tight as we see good demand for canola from Europe and China. Meanwhile, the total crop in Canada seems to be getting smaller. They were talking about a 20 million ton crop earlier this year, but have lowered that to figure of around 19.3 million tons or maybe even less that 19.0 million tons, he said.
In North Dakota crop figures, the estimated total crop acres is now 1.47 million acres compared to the earlier government estimate of 1.55 million acres planted back in June. Seventy percent of the crop is now harvested, which compares to 75 percent on average. On the other hand, growers in many areas of the state are reporting yields are better than what they were expecting.