We have entered the November contract futures period for canola with little price change, according to Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association. The price on July 8 was $479 per ton on the ICE exchange.
“Spokesmen for the canola market are saying $480 is the market resistance level and they will probably start suggesting sales of new crop canola when the price reaches around $485 per ton,” Coleman said. “We are getting close to that area.”
The June 30 USDA acreage report estimated the canola acreage at 1.87 million acres, which is a reduction of 8 percent from last year’s record acreage, and is the fourth highest canola acreage in the history of canola plantings in the U.S. North Dakota again leads the nation in canola acreage with 1.55 million acres, a reduction of 9 percent from last year’s figures, but in line with the expected acres for this year. Planted acres in the state have ranged from 1.45-1.7 million acres since 2016, according to Coleman.
He attributes the decrease in acres planted to lower market prices and disappointing crop results in some of the fringe areas canola is grown, which caused some growers to reduce their planted acres this year.
STATS Canada also released their canola acreage figure, which according to Coleman was what they expected. However, the carryover stock figures were lower when compared to last year. The 2.6 million tons of canola carryover was down 1.2 million from last year’s 3.8 million.
“The Canadian crush figures have kept the canola crop at the 5-year level, which is good news,” he said.
U.S. cash prices ranged from $15.19 to $15.77 per hundredweight at local crush plants on July 8, and those ranges have changed little during the last two weeks, Coleman noted.
In other vegetable oil news – soy oil has been trading higher, which has been supportive to higher canola prices. The decrease in Asian palm and rapeseed oil from the European Union has been positive for canola prices.
“Global vegetable oil markets have been helping canola prices,” he said.
Looking at the North Dakota crop progress and condition, 70 percent of the canola crop is in good-to-excellent condition. Fifty-five percent of the crop is blooming, compared to 75 percent on average, and 2 percent of the crop is coloring.