Cash canola prices have been steady for the past several weeks, according to Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association. Crushing plant cash prices were in a range of $15.12 to $16.25 per hundredweight on June 24. July futures prices on that same day were trading at $473 per ton, which was showing a slight increase in market price.
Weather is the biggest worry now for this year’s North American canola crop. An exceedingly wet spring in Alberta, Canada, has kept farmers from seeding canola in that major production region, while dry conditions have prevailed in the other growing areas of Canada the United States.
“There is definitely plenty of worries with the present canola crop at this time,” Coleman said. “As a result, the ag agencies in both the U.S. and Canada are expecting a slight trimming of canola acreage, which could result in a change in market volatility. They are expecting a total of 1.55 million acres in North Dakota, which would be down slightly from last year’s record acreage.”
Globally, canola production is unchanged this month at 70.8 million tons, Coleman noted, as the lower European crop is offset by a larger Australian crop. Marketing experts feel the ending stocks of canola will reach a 17-year low, which will be price supportive as we enter the new marketing year.
Crush and exports of canola are running ahead of the pace needed to reach the forecast. Ag Foods Canada updated their forecast the week ending June 26 and it shows the ending stocks of canola at 2.3 million tons, which is revised down.
“The stock situation is getting tighter and the average price and the average price range has been raised for canola, which are good support factors in the market,” he said.
The USDA recently released the global vegetable oil situation. The report said the supplies continue to decline. Canola oil is expected to drop by 374,000 tons, which is the first time the stocks have been below 2 million tons since 2008 crop year.
Crop conditions in North Dakota are rated at 71 percent good-to-excellent, Coleman noted. Ten percent of the crop was blooming as of June 22.
The canola tour at Langdon will be a virtual tour this year and will be held on July 16. They will be having their annual golf tournament at Langdon that same day.