U.S. farmers are optimistic about 2019 corn production; less so about soybean production. All of it depends on frost holding off until Oct. 1 or later.

Allendale, Inc. released their 2019 Yield Survey on Sept. 4 and had a few findings that marketers can use.

The 30th annual Nationwide Producer Yield Survey was conducted from Aug. 19-30. The surveys were conducted by brokers (56 percent) and website/social media platforms (44 percent).

Corn

“So our yield survey suggested a minor decline in terms of (corn) yield numbers to expect on this (USDA) September report,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

USDA releases monthly crop production reports on Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 10, Nov. 8 and Dec. 10.

Allendale’s survey came up with an average corn yield of 167.71 bushels per acre – slightly lower than 169.5 bushels per acre from USDA’s Aug. 12 report. Allendale suggests total U.S. corn production of 13.755 billion bushels vs. USDA’s estimate of 13.9 billion bushels.

Since 2009, Allendale’s Nationwide Producer Survey has deviated from 0.2-3.6 bushels per acre from USDA’s September production report.

The 2019 corn survey is 1.79 bushels per acre below the USDA’s August number.

“A lot of our surveys that producers did say on corn at least, as far as anecdotal discussions, the corn looks good,” said Nelson.

Allendale’s research suggests states need September to remain frost free to bring the corn crop to maturity. With temperatures expected to dip into the 40s in mid-September, farmers and traders have a right to be concerned.

Based on Allendale’s estimates, 64-75 percent of corn in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota will reach maturity by the first week of October.

“We still have concerns not just about September weather, but also about early October weather, and in fact even into mid-October, weather is a very valid issue here,” Nelson said.

Soybeans

Allendale’s survey suggests a 181 million bushel U.S. soybean production drop from USDA’s Aug. 12 numbers.

The survey indicated an average yield of 46.13 bushels per acre, down from USDA’s 48.5 bushels per acre in the August report. If Allendale’s numbers are true, production will be closer to 3.499 billion bushels vs. USDA’s estimate of 3.68 billion bushels.

“With soybeans, we did hear maybe just a few more questions regarding the crop itself,” said Nelson. “Perhaps not just a maturity issue, which is a valid one,…but also at the idea of just yield in general as well.”

Producer grain sales pace

Farmers indicated they had 93 percent of 2018 corn priced, 26 percent of 2019 corn priced. 2018 soybeans were 92 percent priced, with 16 percent of 2019 priced. About 27 percent of new crop wheat was priced by late August.

The numbers

Corn production average bushels per acre USDA Aug. 1 numbers vs. Allendale’s late August survey:

Iowa – USDA 191, Allendale 192

Illinois – USDA 181, Allendale 178

Nebraska – USDA 186, Allendale 186

Minnesota – USDA 173, Allendale 169

Indiana – USDA 166, Allendale 163

South Dakota – USDA 157, Allendale 146

Kansas – USDA 135, Allendale 136

Ohio – USDA 160, Allendale 154

Wisconsin – USDA 165, Allendale 163

North Dakota – USDA 146, Allendale 141

Missouri – USDA 160, Allendale 158

Michigan – USDA 155, Allendale 156

U.S. – USDA 169.48, Allendale 167.71

U.S. production – USDA 13.901 billion bushels, Allendale 13.755 billion bushels

Soybean average production bushels per acre USDA Aug. 1 numbers vs. Allendale’s late August survey:

Iowa – USDA 55, Allendale 53

Illinois – USDA 55, Allendale 49

Nebraska – USDA 58, Allendale 55

Minnesota – USDA 46, Allendale 44

Indiana – USDA 50, Allendale 46

South Dakota – USDA 45, Allendale 37

Kansas – USDA 42, Allendale 42

Ohio – USDA 48, Allendale 43

Wisconsin – USDA 47, Allendale 47

North Dakota – USDA 35, Allendale 36

Missouri – USDA 45, Allendale 44

Michigan – USDA 45, Allendale 36

U.S. – USDA 48.51, Allendale 46.13

U.S. production – USDA 3.68 billion bushels, Allendale 3.499 billion bushels

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