With an early planting season and great weather, Brazil’s soybean crop is promising to be great. That isn’t good news for the U.S. markets.
“They could be harvesting beans in Brazil here in just over 30 days — by the end of December,” said Joe Lardy, research analyst at CHS Hedging. “For this crop to head south in Brazil, the weather is going to need a hard turn. They are looking at potential near or all-time record production.”
With a slower news time in the U.S. between the holidays, the news out of Brazil is going to be the major driving force of the soybean market for the next few weeks, Lardy said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping were expected to meet at the G20 summit Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 as trade tensions rage, but Lardy said the effect of those talks is secondary.
“Regardless of what happens in the G20 summit, we are going to be transitioning to the South American gut slot of exports,” he said.
“What people seem to be missing out on is the South American window for exports is opening up sooner than later. I don’t see an overly optimistic outlook for the bean market until we get to the February-March timeframe and we start to look at acreage next year. You could get a bump with a reduction in acreage.”
Corn is also currently dealing with an over-supply issue. With a large supply number in the latest WASDE report, demand is going to be key for supporting prices.
“We are really going to need to see the demand side of the equation pick up pretty substantially,” Lardy said. “From an export picture, things have been pretty decent for the past while here, so I would hope to see that continue moving forward.”
Lardy added that ethanol has also taken a hit recently, saying the margins are negative and the outlook is showing they will stay negative for a little while.
“I’m wondering if in this environment, are we going to see some places start to throttle back a little bit?” Lardy said.