Well into November, farmers are hard at work and learning what kind of crop they have for 2019. Recent estimates show it might be better than expected.
Some private forecasts raised their estimates Nov. 1, pushing them higher than USDA’s October estimate of 168.4 bushels per acre for corn and 46.9 bu./acre on soybeans. The November USDA estimates are expected to be higher as well.
“That seems to be the trend,” Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group said. “I was looking at some reports and yields are all over the map, but you are seeing yields (higher) than you would have figured.”
Scoville said those increased yields are already being factored into the market, adding to some weakness in the grains. Keeping an eye on harvest progress numbers is still important for traders and producers, he said, as it will be an indication of how much crop will be entering the marketplace.
As of Nov. 4, U.S. harvest remains well behind average pace, with corn pegged at 52% complete (five-year average of 75%) and soybeans at 75% complete (five-year average of 87%).
Soybeans have withstood some of the recent losses due to hopes an interim trade deal with China will be signed in the upcoming weeks, Scoville said. However, with corn and wheat not expected to be a major factor in those trade deals, those commodities have been dropping in price. The wheat futures market is dealing with a bearish demand outlook as well, he said.
Trade is seeing the deal with China as a near certainty, Scoville said. Once signed, sales of soybeans are expected to continue increasing.
“Mostly it’s soybeans, and I think it’s going to be great for the meats as well,” he said.
Scoville noted the possibility of the U.S. dollar bouncing back after some recent weakness may not prove bullish for the markets and is one of the biggest items he is keeping an eye on in the next week or two.