Markets have been in a slide going into the week of May 13, with major headlines blaming the recent trade negotiations between the United States and China.
After President Trump announced there would be new tariffs put in place on May 10, China reacted by saying they would impose their own retaliatory tariffs on June 1.
Jack Scoville of the Price Futures Group said he thinks the market is still anticipating a trade deal to be in place eventually, but noted that markets are seeing stress. That is evident in both the commodity and stock markets.
“It’s getting to the point now where both of these big countries are not only messing with their own economy, but the world economy is starting to take notice and they are not liking what they are seeing,” Scoville said. “All in all, there’s a certain amount of ugliness going on.”
While economic pressures will increase tensions during negotiations and within the countries, political pressure may also be a factor.
“It’s too important to (President Trump), who does need the farm vote after all, and there is going to be an election,” Scoville said. “It’s important to the Chinese as well, so I expect a deal, but obviously this is a setback.”
However, any concerns that traders and analysts have toward the trade negotiations are very real, Scoville said.
“It’s not good for us,” Scoville said. “Look what it’s done for prices. There’s some very legitimate concern out there. We produced a lot of soybeans last year to meet that demand and we are still sitting on them because we put that demand away.
Domestically, the concerns are around two things, the leftover and projected stocks and when farmers will get their crop in the ground.
Following a bearish Supply and Demand report on May 10, which came in with stocks at the high end of trade estimates for all major commodities, the market saw a downturn.
Giving some possible hope for price support, the May 13 crop progress report showed planting is lagging behind with corn planted at 30% complete, down 36 percentage points from the 5-year average, and soybeans planted 9%, 20 points below the 5-year average.
With hopes that more planting can be done with a possibly favorable forecast this week, Jerry Gidel of the Price Futures Group said the market will be waiting another week before taking any sort of reaction.
“When you get past (May 20) that’s when things start to really accelerate with ideas about yield capabilities,” Gidel said. “Does that create a 50 cent rally? No. We are lucky to get a 20-cent rally, and we have to hope there’s a positive tone to trade talks.”