Ahead of the Sept. 28 Grain Stocks report, market analysts talked of long-term bullish prospects for corn and wheat futures.
Those grains could be entering a demand-led market, said Dan Basse of AgResource Company in a CME Group video discussion with Dave Hightower of The Hightower Report.
Wheat exporting countries’ stocks are “really low,” Australia’s drought will force business to the U.S. and European shipments are down.
Big wheat stocks in China may not reach the world market, and Russia may delay export sales to wait for higher prices.
Basse said he thinks the market is near a turning point.
The USDA was likely to report big Sept. 1 grain stocks, “so it’s going to take a tremendous amount of demand” to turn markets higher, Hightower said.
Basse anticipated demand from funds, “but I think the big driver will be exports.”
John Payne, a broker with Daniels Trading, said early this week that in the Grain Stocks report, “I think there is a decent chance for a bullish surprise in the corn and bean market given recent demand data.”
The surprise could come as market participants consider how strong demand plus trend or below-trend 2019 yields could tighten the stocks outlook.
For soybeans, “We’ve seen no evidence that global demand is falling,” said Payne. Soybean meal demand climbed 45 percent in the past decade and more than tripled in the past 30 years.
China is filling part of its demand by buying more from Argentina, which in turn has been buying U.S. soybeans.
However, prices are weak in the short term. Many producers will harvest big yields, they didn’t hedge enough, and they’re clearing out storage space for the new crop, Payne said.