Grain Export barge filling corn

Corn closed the week 1 ¼-cent higher. Private exporters announced sale of 328,000 metric tons to Mexico for the 2019-2020 marketing year.

In the weekly export inspections report, corn inspections totaled 25.2 million bushels for the week ending Aug. 22, below the 67.8 million bushels needed each week to reach U.S. Department of Agriculture's export estimate of 2.1 billion bushels. Inspections for 2018-19 now total 1.842 billion bushels, down 17% from the previous year.

In the weekly crop conditions report, corn rated good or excellent as of Aug. 25 came in at 57% versus 56% the prior week and 68% last year. Major producing states with improving conditions were Illinois with 49% (+7%), Missouri 39% (+3%), South Dakota 63% (+1%) and Michigan 44% (+4%). Major producing states with declining conditions were Ohio 30% (-2%), Wisconsin 61% (- 2%).

The dough stage came in at 71% versus 91% last year and the dent stage was at 27% versus 59% last year and the five year average at 46%.

Strategy and outlook: Producers should use more option strategies this year than in previous years to provide greater marketing flexibility.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans closed the week 12 cents higher. Private exporters did not announce any sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, soybean inspections totaled 35.3 million bushels, above the 31.9 million needed weekly to reach USDA's export estimate of 1.7 billion bushels. Inspections for 2018-19 now total 1.633 billion, down 20% from the previous year.

In the weekly crop conditions report; good and excellent ratings as of Aug. 25 were at 55% versus 53% last week and 66% last year. Major producing states with improving conditions were Illinois 50% (+10%), Iowa 62% (+1%), Kansas 53% (+5%), Missouri 48% (+4%), Nebraska 73% (+1%), Ohio 32% (+3%) and South Dakota 58% (+2%). Soybeans setting pods came in at 91% versus 85% last week and compared to 98% last year.

Strategy and outlook: Large carryover stocks gives the market some cushion in case of lower yields.

WHEAT

Chicago wheat closed 16 1/2 cents cent higher, Kansas City wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower and Minneapolis wheat 4 cents lower. Egypt bought 350,000 metric tons of Russian, French and Ukrainian wheat.

In the weekly export inspections report, wheat inspections totaled 18.1 million bushels, slightly below the 18.7 million needed weekly to reach USDA's export estimate of 975 million. Inspections for 2019-2020 now total 221 million bushels, up 24% from the previous year.

In the weekly crop conditions report; spring wheat rated good or excellent as of Aug. 25 came in at 69% versus 70% last week and compared to 74% last year. Montana wheat improved six points to 67% good or excellent. Declining conditions in major producing states were North Dakota 69% (-2%), South Dakota 62% (-5%) and Washington 61% (-3%).

Spring wheat harvest as of Aug. 25 was 38% complete compared to 16% last week. Of the top producing states, North Dakota reported harvest at 34% complete (+22%), Montana 34% (+14%), Minnesota 45% (+31%), South Dakota 53% (+26%) and Washington 47% (+22%).

Winter wheat harvested as of Aug. 25 was up 3% at 96% done.

The Statistics Canada report showed total wheat production down 2.9% at 31.251 million tonnes versus 32.201 million last year. The spring wheat production number was estimated at 25.108 million tonnes, up from last year’s 23.942 million tonnes. The winter wheat production number was estimated at 1.725 million tonnes, down from last year's 2.514 million tonnes.

Strategy and outlook: The huge world supplies of wheat mandates producers to sell out inventory and use options to manage risks on sharp rally attempts.

LIVE AND FEEDER CATTLE

Live cattle closed 75 cents lower while feeder cattle closed $2.40 lower.

Fed cattle trade in the North was mostly $105 to $106 live and $170 to $175 dressed, thus far, $2 to $5 lower than the week prior. Trade in the South was primarily $103, $3 softer versus the last week.

The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction saw 734 head offered for sale from six lots. Four lots went unsold while 432 head were sold at $106 in two lots.

Net beef sales of 13,700 metric tons reported for 2019 were down 20% from the previous week and 18% from the prior four-week average.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 3 pounds versus the prior week at 881, making them 5 pounds less than last year.

Strategy and outlook: Producers should have transferred all risk to the cash markets.

LEAN HOGS

Lean hogs closed the week $4.42 higher. Iowa and southern Minnesota weekly hog weights came in at 277.4 pounds versus 277.2 pounds the previous week and 277.6 last year.

Net pork sales of 28,400 metric tons reported for 2019 were up 53% from the previous and 85% from the prior four-week average.

Strategy and outlook: Producers should have moved all risk to the cash markets.

Midwest Market Solutions is the leading edge in commodity marketing and trading. It was established in March 2002 and is a full-service commodity brokerage and marketing advisory service, clearing through R.J. O’Brien. The firm specializes in individual trading strategies for the investor, personalized marketing programs for individual farm operations as well as full-service and discount broker services. The home office is located in Springfield, Mo., with branch offices in Yankton, S.D.; Storm Lake, Iowa; Alvord, Iowa; Thief River Falls, Minn., Verona, N.D., and Springfield, Neb. Midwest Market Solutions is committed to providing clients with the best information and service as possible. Midwest Market Solutions provides clients with written newsletters, trade research and hedging as well as trading advice.

Brian Hoops is president and senior market analyst of Midwest Market Solutions. Brian can frequently be heard on radio stations across the country including KWMT, KAYL, KKIA, Ag News 890, Red River Farm Network and Commodity Wrap on Sirius XM radio. Brian can also be heard daily on DTN, is seen as a frequent guest on RFD-TV and is heard on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange marketing hotline. Brian also writes several newsletters that are published throughout the Plains and the Midwest, covering the states of Iowa, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Wisconsin, Wyoming and Idaho. Brian has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters and Dow Jones newswires and U.S. Farm Report.

Daily market commentary and trade recommendations are available at www.midwestmarket-solutions.com or by e-mail at bhoops@midwestmarketsolutions.com. Hoops can be contacted at 417-501-5132. (Copyright 2019 Midwest Market Solutions Inc.)

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops is president and senior market analyst of Midwest Market Solutions Inc. The home office is in Springfield, Mo., with branch offices in Thief River Falls, Minn.; Verona, N.D.; Yankton, S.D.; Storm Lake, Iowa; and Springfield, Neb.