|Wall Street Journal chart based on Census data|
The bureau estimated state populations as of July 1, 2019. Since the date of the decennial census is April 1, 2020, the figures are a decent predictor of which states will gain and lose congressional seats and electoral votes based on the count, Adamy and Overberg report.
"Texas is poised to gain two congressional seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are each expected to gain one," Adamy and Overberg report. "Eight states are likely to lose one seat: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California. It would be California’s first such loss since it became a state in 1850."
The shift could help the Republican Party, since the losses come mainly from Democratic and swing states and the gains mostly go to Republican or swing states, according to Kimball Brace, president of the bipartisan political consulting firm Election Data Services. However, "Democrats have said in Texas and Arizona, the growth of the Latino populations and new residents from other states could eventually turn them blue," Adamy and Overberg report. "Democrats noted how population movements in recent years have moved the partisan makeup of some states in their favor, including Virginia and Colorado."
The power shift will also depend on which party controls each state's legislature after the November elections, since legislators redraw districts, Adamy and Overberg report. Political power also depends on whether voters are moving to urban areas, which tend to be more liberal; or rural areas, which tend to be more conservative. A decades-long trend of Americans moving to larger cities will likely result in Democrats benefitting from the new Census, Reid Wilson reports for The Hill.