Crop prices have stayed high through the early part of the growing season, as the weather market hasn’t found reason to turn lower yet. However, that doesn’t mean outlooks are bullish, said Karl Setzer of Agrivisor.
The calendar and the crop reports are the big items in today’s grain market situation.
With much of the new crop planting done and emerging under generally good conditions, a slight decline in U.S. export expectations from the USDA may be a cause for concern.
The Ukraine yo-yo was at work in the grain markets last week. Corn and soybean prices which had been pushed higher by the Russian invasion of Ukraine suddenly dropped for a few days when rumors arose that Russia might open a corridor for grain shipments out of the Black Sea.
Market swings have been common in 2022, as crop prices have been fluctuating with global headlines and a rainy start to the growing season.
Planting season is progressing and the war in Ukraine isn’t, or at least it isn’t looking to be near an end. For the grain markets that is a mixed bag, according to Karl Setzer, a market analyst at Agrivisor.
Planting progress has sped up across the Corn Belt, but crop prices have continued to rise.
For months market analysts have talked about the war in Ukraine, about supply chain issues, about high input costs, and about trade bottlenecks. But right now the talk is all about the weather and planting progress.
A slow start to planting season has not found its way into market pricing yet, but further delays could make an impact soon.
For the first time in nearly a decade, corn prices closed above $8.
The attention in the grain market is slowly turning from the war in Ukraine and toward the spring weather in the United States.
After a supportive USDA report boosted corn and wheat prices April 8, markets are watching weather as planting season looms in the Midwest.
The grain market isn’t quite sure what direction to go at the moment. It is jacked up on risk premiums and waiting for spring planting season. It is capable of going up or down, depending on the weather forecast and the news from overseas.
As grain markets digest the Prospective Planting report released by the USDA Thursday, global events have also been the focus.
At some point the discussion in the grain markets will move from Ukraine to spring planting in the United States. But right now there is a series of gyrations in the world markets, and everybody is learning on the run what those gyrations mean.
After the initial upheaval of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, grain markets are starting to look ahead to what the geopolitical conflict will mean for the future.
It’s all about Ukraine right now.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown the markets into turmoil. With every news report, the market reacts accordingly, and that is expected to continue, according to Price Futures Group analyst Jack Scoville.
The story hasn’t changed in recent weeks. The grain markets have been caught in the crosshairs of multiple issues, and those issues have not yet been resolved.
Grain markets may have found their top for the moment.
The grain markets have been on a wild ride so far this year, but the good news for farmers is that they appear to be ready to set some historically high crop insurance standards.
Preparations for a new crop year have begun in earnest, and February marks an important moment for many farmers — the release of insurance rates.
If there is a defining force in the commodity markets so far in 2022, it may be that managed money is dominating the market.
With updates on exports, the previous season’s crop and international yields, the January USDA reports are known for causing excitement — both positive and negative — in the grain markets.
It’s still a weather market.