After a long holiday weekend, crop markets came back to news in China that caused pressure.
Multiple global developments are likely to drive grain prices in the short term, including a wartime agreement.
Harvest has nearly wrapped up in many locations around the Midwest, and as the crop goes into storage, farmers may want to look at selling some of their grain.
Barge disruptions caused by the drought that resulted in record-low levels on some parts of the Mississippi River are particularly concerning during a key seasonal period of soybean exports, according to a report by USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist.
As crop markets settle on their harvest prices, demand concerns continue to emerge.
The never-ending supply of bearish U.S. demand news continues as the dollar is not expected to fall anytime soon, according to Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors.
As harvest continues across the Midwest, a bottleneck along the Midwest’s rivers is causing challenges for terminals that rely on barge traffic for their grain.
Harvest season continues around the Midwest, and while the crop comes out of the field, demand worries are weighing on the markets.
Soybean markets had a shock to close out September. The Quarterly Stocks report released by the USDA showed stocks much higher than anticipated, forcing more than 40 cent drops in upcoming contracts.
Markets were turbulent last week as interest rates continued their sprint higher and the Federal Reserve looks to curb inflation. But with harvest season upon the U.S., crop markets will be focused on yield reports for the foreseeable future.
An interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve poses another uncertain factor for equity and agriculture markets, as consumer demand is expected to wane. However, global issues continue to be the major driving factor in the markets as U.S. harvest gets underway.
The September Supply and Demand report came as a surprise to some traders. Soybean prices surged when the Sept. 12 report was released as supply figures and yield were lower than expected.
The USDA threw a curve ball at the markets to open September.
The calendar and the weather forecast are the driving forces pushing crop prices right now, according to Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines.
It’s not complicated. “Weather is driving everything,” says Karl Setzer, a market analyst with AgriVisor.
After a week of gains, the grain futures market saw prices fall following the Aug. 12 Supply and Demand report, something not entirely unexpected, according to Agrivisor’s Karl Setzer.
No matter what else happens, every day that passes puts the market a day closer to harvest.
An agreement between Russia and Ukraine had crop markets tumbling on July 22, but according to market analyst Jack Scoville, this should just be a one-time drop.
There are a lot of things happening in the markets right now, but the simple fact that the calendar keeps moving and the crop is getting ever closer to being a reality is the major market factor at play.
The markets did a few gyrations in recent weeks as funds changed their strategy, but for farmers the strategy probably hasn’t changed that much.
Updated acreage figures were the focus of the June 30 USDA report and may be setting the story for markets moving into harvest season.
Crop prices have stayed high through the early part of the growing season, as the weather market hasn’t found reason to turn lower yet. However, that doesn’t mean outlooks are bullish, said Karl Setzer of Agrivisor.
The calendar and the crop reports are the big items in today’s grain market situation.
With much of the new crop planting done and emerging under generally good conditions, a slight decline in U.S. export expectations from the USDA may be a cause for concern.
The Ukraine yo-yo was at work in the grain markets last week. Corn and soybean prices which had been pushed higher by the Russian invasion of Ukraine suddenly dropped for a few days when rumors arose that Russia might open a corridor for grain shipments out of the Black Sea.